Most Asian countries are expected to grow at a slower pace in 2023 than they did in 2022, and fiscal stimulus will no longer be a dominant factor driving growth in the region. We expect monetary policy outlook to persist as the primary driver of rates in 2023 with focus on the potential end to the tightening cycle.
We present our 2023 outlook for core markets, emerging markets and global credit.
We believe that the benign macro backdrop should remain supportive for credit fundamentals in 2023. The fiscal deficits of Asian economies are expected to gradually narrow as the need for pandemic support decreases.
The just-released 3Q CY22 data on aggregate corporate profits in Japan was very positive, with the overall corporate recurring pre-tax profit margin hitting a record high on a four quarter average.
China’s bond market is exhibiting low correlation to other asset classes, displaying historically lower volatility, enjoying continued internationalisation of the renminbi and benefitting from the country being included in globally recognised indices.
This month, Fed Chair Powell seemed hellbent on quashing any last hope of a pivot or at least slowing the pace of rate hikes sometime soon. But this crushing blow to hope helped sow the seeds of an eyewatering rally when one inflation print showed some promise—hence, the manic cycle continues.
We are inclined towards Singapore and South Korean government bonds, given their relatively higher sensitivities to stabilising US Treasury yields. In currencies, we see the Singapore dollar continuing to outperform its regional peers.
The ASEAN region fared better on the whole in October thanks to gains by the Philippines and Malaysia; Hong Kong and Taiwan stocks were volatile while the China market continued sliding.
A notable feature of global equities this year has been the significant divergence seen among indices. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index has provided an example of this by following a different track to the overall global trend so far.
As in the rest of the world, consumers in New Zealand are facing significant headwinds as the cost of living rises. The consensus was for inflation to decline rapidly after peaking, but the data now show that New Zealand’s inflation is becoming significantly entrenched, broad based, and domestically driven.
Yields have moved significantly this year, challenging the assumption that the relationship between a bond’s price and yield is linear. We discuss convexity, which measures how sensitive a bond’s duration is to yield changes, and its importance under the current conditions.
As Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida focuses on various economic initiatives to shore up his support ratings, the revival of inbound tourism is seen as a measure that can provide the economy with an immediate boost.
China’s 20th Party Congress ended on 23 October with President Xi Jinping winning an unprecedented third term as expected. We provide a brief analysis of the Congress and the impact it could have on China’s zero-COVID policy and the capital markets.
We present our Q4 2022 outlook for the Global Unconstrained Bond Strategy which incorporates our core markets, emerging markets and global credit views.
Asia continues to offer opportunities in terms of attractive companies; on a relative basis, Asian markets look set to outperform as the region becomes an even more important part of the global economy.
The low for this bear market could be a lot closer at hand now than it was, with equity valuations having fallen considerably. We remain focused upon assessing our companies’ ability to deliver earnings expectations and cash generation. These give us confidence in the long-term, even if shorter-term developments remain volatile.
Compared to its global peers the New Zealand bond market was stable in September. In the coming months, the New Zealand market is unlikely to see UK levels of volatility; one factor behind the turmoil in the UK, for example, was the country’s very high rate of inflation and associated pressure from energy issues. Uncertainty over a potentially large public fiscal outlay was similarly UK-specific.
The recent reporting season showed that New Zealand’s “gentailers” (companies that both generate and sell energy) remain committed to developing renewable generation capacity, with five such projects currently under construction. However, a rise in the cost of developing such capacity in the past 12 months is creating a significant challenge for gentailers.
Going forward, despite some expected moderation amidst the slowdown in global growth, we believe that growth and corporate credit fundamentals will remain sufficiently robust to prevent a meaningful widening of credit spreads. However, some modest widening may be expected in the near term, with the benchmark spread level at the tighter end of the expected medium-term range and given the plethora of global market risks.
Central bank tightening is beginning to have an impact, but less evidently in terms of easing inflationary pressures than in causing strains on the global financial system. Policymakers are beginning to blink—first with Japan intervening to support the yen for the first time since 1998, followed by the Bank of England (BOE) returning to quantitative easing (and postponing planned quantitative tightening) to ease pressures on the UK pension system following an ill-advised fiscal easing by new UK government leadership.