Investment Insights

 

New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly (July 2024)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand stood pat on interest rates in its latest Monetary Policy Review in July, but it signalled a shift towards a more dovish stance, suggesting that a first rate cut could be conducted by the end of 2024.
We assess the extreme turbulence this week that rocked Japanese equities, which had reached record highs just last month. We discuss the factors that led to the sharp downturn at the start of the week and consider what could be in store for the market, including prospects for recovery.

Japan’s equity market a hotspot for active investment

Japan Equity Investment Director Junichi Takayama explains how active management can help identify opportunities, particularly within the small and mid-cap markets.
Although market volatility resurfaced in the early part of the April-June quarter as interest rate cuts in the US began to look less likely amid higher-than-expected inflation, risk assets bounced back and rallied strongly later in the quarter. This reflected signs of softness in the US economy, which made it more likely that the Fed would be able to cut interest rates.
We retained both our overweight to growth assets and our neutral position on defensives. The outlook for growth remains positive as global central banks have started monetary easing, with Europe and Canada leading the way by cutting their interest rates.

Japan's cash-rich companies: harnessing corporate reforms

Japan, a nation of “cash-rich” companies, is undergoing corporate reforms aimed at raising valuation of companies by improving their capital efficiency. The reforms, along with cash-rich companies' historical outperformance and strategic options due to their ample cash holdings, make these firms well worth exploring.
In China, we await confirmation of real, positive fundamental change before increasing our confidence towards the country, and we maintain a highly selective approach. Elsewhere, a combination of AI-induced excitement and positive structural reforms has driven Asian markets higher, particularly in Taiwan, South Korea and India.
We favour South Korean, Indian and Philippine government bonds and have adopted a neutral stance on Indonesian bonds. Meanwhile, the fundamentals backdrop for Asian credit remains supportive.

New Zealand Equity Monthly (June 2024)

A look back at the past six months reveals the extent to which New Zealand’s equity market has missed out on the strength seen in many other global markets. Amid these struggles, however, the New Zealand market’s sensitivity to interest rates also offers a note of hope.

New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly (June 2024)

Given the current weakness in New Zealand’s economy, the key question regarding interest rates is not so much the direction they will take but when they are likely to be cut. The struggles seen in the economy span from GDP to employment and look set to persist for some time.

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